2005年8月

IZA DP No. 1700:收益函数,回报率和治疗效果:绞刀方程及其他

发表于:E. Hanushek和F. Welch主编。,Handbook of the Economics of Education, North Holland: Amsterdam, 2006, 307-458

许多研究将对数收入与学校教育的关系进行回归,并将估计系数报告为“Mincer回报率”。最近的文献使用工具变量。本章讨论这些分析的经济学解释,以及重复截面和面板数据的可用性如何提高分析师估计回报率的能力。我们考虑明瑟模型在什么条件下估计事后回报率。我们对美国人口普查数据的六个横截面进行了测试和拒绝。我们提出了一个一般的非参数方法来估计边际内部收益率,考虑到学费,所得税和各种形式的不确定性。我们还使用综合队列方法,将基于单个数据横截面的估计与基于实际队列后重复横截面的估计进行对比。基于队列的模型对重复的截面数据进行了拟合,可以对事后收益进行更可靠的估计。考虑不确定性会影响对回报率的估计。对连续披露的信息进行会计处理,让人怀疑内部收益率作为政策分析工具的有效性。 An alternative approach to computing economic rates of return that accounts for sequential revelation of information is proposed and the evidence is summarized. We distinguish ex ante from ex post returns. New panel data methods for estimating the uncertainty and psychic costs facing agents are reviewed. We report recent evidence that demonstrates that there are large psychic costs of schooling. This helps to explain why persons do not attend school even though the financial rewards for doing so are high. We present methods for computing distributions of returns ex ante and ex post. We review the literature on IV estimation. The link of the estimates to the economics is not strong. The traditional instruments are weak, and this literature has not produced decisive empirical estimates. We exposit new methods that interpret the economic content of different instruments within a unified framework.