2021年3月

IZA DP No. 14164:欧盟的移民和投票模式:来自五个案例研究和跨国分析的证据

伊桑•Grumstrup托德·a·索伦森,简·米休纳,玛尔塔·帕乔卡

(移民通讯即将出版)

2015年欧洲难民危机促使一些国家对寻求庇护者完全关闭边境,这引发了欧洲的愤怒情绪。这被认为助长了反移民情绪,这种情绪在欧洲不断升温,此前日渐式微的极右翼政党也得到了支持。这引发了一系列关于移民和极右翼投票之间关系的研究,研究发现了一些复杂而微妙的证据,表明移民在某些情况下增加了极右翼的支持率,而在另一些情况下减少了支持率。门德斯和Cutillas(2014)的研究;Mayda, Peri, and Steingress (2016);Vertier和Viskanic (2018);Georgiadou、Lamprini和Costas(2018)发现,移民的存在会减少右翼政党的选票,而Otto和Steinhardt(2014)则发现;dusmann, Vasiljeva, and Damm (2016);Halla, Wagner, and zweimmuller (2017);Brunner和Kuhn (2018); and Edo et. al. (2019) found that immigration increased votes for right parties. To provide more evidence to this unsettled debate in the empirical literature, we use data from over 400 European parties to systematically select cases of individual countries. We augment this with a cross-country quantitative study. Our analysis finds little evidence that immigrant populations are related to changes in voting for the right. Our finding gives evidence that factors other than immigration are the true cause of rises in right voting.

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