开始:VCALENDAR版本:2.0 PRODID: / /学院Labor Economics//Zope//EN METHOD:PUBLISH CALSCALE:GREGORIAN BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Europe/Berlin BEGIN:DAYLIGHT TZOFFSETFROM:+0100 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU DTSTART:19810329T020000 TZNAME:CEST TZOFFSETTO:+0200 END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:STANDARD TZOFFSETFROM:+0200 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU DTSTART:19961027T030000 TZNAME:CET TZOFFSETTO:+0100 END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:5871052776800@conference.iza.org LOCATION;CHARSET=UTF-8: DESCRIPTION:Do early job losses permanently reduce the earnings and career prospects of young \nworkers? Simple estimates may overstate the true effects of early displacements, especially if less able \nworkers sort into firms with high turnover rates. The bias from initial assignment of workers between \nfirms is compounded by biases from selection within firms, which arise if employers selectively \ndisplace their least able workers, or if workers move voluntarily to take better jobs. This paper uses \nlongitudinal social security data on German apprentices and their training firms to obtain estimates \nof the long-term effects of an early job loss that account for nonrandom assignment between firms \nand selection within firms. I use differences over time in the fraction of graduating apprentices that \nare retained by the training firm as an instrument for job displacement. These should reflect \nexogenous changes in firm-specific labor demand that are independent of individual ability or \npermanent firm characteristics. Using this strategy, I find that wage losses from leaving the training \nfirm at graduation are initially strong but fade within the first five years in the labor market. The \nresults also confirm an important influence of voluntary mobility and of initial sorting matching \ntrainees to firms. Both of these factors are likely to confound results of previous studies of early job \nmobility lacking information on the demand side. SEQUENCE:1 X-APPLE-TRAVEL-ADVISORY-BEHAVIOR:AUTOMATIC SUMMARY:IZA Seminar: In the Right Place at the Wrong Time - The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers by Till Wachter (University of California, Los Angeles) DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20030513T000000 DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:T000000 END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR