开始:VCALENDAR版本:2.0 PRODID: / /学院Labor Economics//Zope//EN METHOD:PUBLISH CALSCALE:GREGORIAN BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Europe/Berlin BEGIN:DAYLIGHT TZOFFSETFROM:+0100 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU DTSTART:19810329T020000 TZNAME:CEST TZOFFSETTO:+0200 END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:STANDARD TZOFFSETFROM:+0200 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU DTSTART:19961027T030000 TZNAME:CET TZOFFSETTO:+0100 END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:17731261004400@conference.iza.org LOCATION;CHARSET=UTF-8: DESCRIPTION:Who are the losers of the 2009/10 labour-market downturn? A scenario analysis for Germany. \n \nOlivier Bargain, Herwig Immervoll, Andreas Peichl, Sebastian Siegloch \n \nAbstract \nMacro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the individual and household levels. Since the onset of the current economic downturn, concerns about its implications for poverty and distributional outcomes more generally have led to a range of policy initiatives seeking to support vulnerable groups. These efforts are, however, hampered by how little is in fact known about the likely distribution of changes in market income, or the capacity of existing redistribution systems to soften the negative impact of job and income losses. While it is possible to make informed guesses about which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies in OECD countries are still largely backward-looking. \n \nThis paper attempts to provide forward-looking income-distribution scenarios for Germany. It takes as a starting point observed or forecast changes in economic activity and combines them with household-level micro-data in order to model the incidence of rising unemployment, earnings losses and the associated decline in household income. We develop a method to incorporate the labor demand side into microsimulation models. Instead of relying on estimates from the literature, we estimate own labor demand functions using a newly developed labor demand model estimated on matched employer-employee data for Germany. The detailed administrative data allow us to identify precise labor demand reactions to wage changes for different skill groups. In a second step we feed the labor demand information into the behavioral microsimulation model in order to assess the effects of macro shocks on employment and income distributions. \n \nThe aim of this paper is not to provide forecasts but to derive a range of scenarios that can be used for benchmarking the effectiveness of existing income safety nets. To link the results to the current policy debate, we model job and earnings losses allowing for two relevant margins of adjustment: (1) the extent to which earnings losses are a result of complete or partial unemployment; and (2) the share of labour-market adjustments borne by non-standard workers (such as those with temporary jobs who are more easily shed from the workforce but are often not covered by unemployment benefits). Based on the results, we discuss factors that are likely to determine the effectiveness of different policy responses that countries are considering or have already implemented. \n SEQUENCE:1 X-APPLE-TRAVEL-ADVISORY-BEHAVIOR:AUTOMATIC SUMMARY:IZA Internal Seminar: Who are the losers of the 2009/10 labour-market downturn? A scenario analysis for Germany. by Andreas Peichl (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit�t M�nchen) DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20091217T120000 DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:T000000 END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR