加入Zoom会议
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87487213161
会议编号:874 8721 3161
我们建立了一个公开可用的数据库，使用来自私营公司的匿名数据，在粒度级别上实时跟踪经济活动。我们每天报告消费者支出、企业收入、就业率和其他关键指标的统计数据，这些指标按邮政编码、行业、收入群体和企业规模分类。利用这些数据，我们通过分析其影响的异质性来研究COVID-19如何影响经济。我们首先表明，高收入人群在2020年3月中旬大幅减少了支出，特别是在COVID-19感染率高的地区和需要面对面互动的部门。这种支出的减少大大减少了富裕地区小企业的收入。这些企业解雇了许多员工，导致了广泛的失业，特别是在富裕地区的低薪工人中。高工资工人经历了持续数周的v型衰退，而低工资工人则经历了持续数月的大规模失业。在这一诊断分析的基础上，我们估计了旨在减轻COVID-19不利影响的政策的因果效应。国家命令的经济重新开放对支出和就业的影响很小。对低收入家庭的刺激支出大幅增加了消费者支出，但增加的支出很少流向受COVID-19冲击影响最严重的企业，从而抑制了其对就业的影响。 Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses by only 2%, implying a cost of $377,000 per job saved. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools � stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses � have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics. |
