2012年8月

IZA DP第6826号:不利金融冲击对劳动力市场的影响

最近的金融危机,以及大西洋两岸失业率的急剧上升,表明金融冲击确实会影响到劳动力市场。在这篇论文中,我们首先证明了金融衰退放大了劳动力市场的波动和奥肯弹性的商业周期。其次,我们强调了将金融冲击与就业破坏联系起来的关键机制,提出并解决了一个简单的劳动力市场搜索和内生金融模型。在正常情况下,金融业增加了就业机会和净产出,同时也增强了它们在金融冲击后的总体反应能力。第三,我们提出的证据与以下观点一致:在金融衰退期间,杠杆率更高的行业就业波动更大。从理论上讲,金融业的就业破坏效应是这样的。杠杆企业可能会发现自己的流动性突然被贷方收回。这对运行和管理现有作业的能力有直接影响。因此,企业可能被迫关闭部分业务,并摧毁现有的工作岗位。我们认为,在发达的资本市场下,企业将有动力更多地依赖流动性,而在正常时期,深度的资本市场会导致劳动力市场紧张。 After an adverse liquidity shock, firms that rely much on liquidity are hit disproportionally hard. This may explain why the unemployment rate in the US during the Great Recession increased more than in European countries experiencing larger output losses. Empirically, the paper uses a variety of datasets to test the implications of the model. At first we identify crises that, just like in the model, caused a sudden reduction of liquidity to firms. Next we draw on sector-level data on employment and leverage in a number of OECD countries at quarterly frequencies to assess whether highly leveraged equilibria originate more employment adjustment under financial recessions. We find that highly leveraged sectors and periods are associated with higher employment- to-output elasticities during banking crises and this effect explains the observation of higher Okun's elasticities during financial recessions. We also argue that the effect of leverage on employment adjustment can be interpreted as a causal effect, if our identification assumptions are considered plausible. All this amounts essentially for a test of the labor demand channel of adjustment.

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