2018年1月

IZA DP No. 11279:中国的“巨大迁移”:减少贸易政策的影响不确定性

Giovanni Facchini.,Maggie Y. Liu,安娜玛丽亚玛迪亚,明海周

我们分析了中国对全国工人世界经济融入世界经济的影响,并表明一个重要的影响渠道已成为内部移民。Specifically, we study the changes in internal migration rates triggered by the reduction in trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese exporters in the U.S. This reduction is characterized by plausibly exogenous variation across sectors, which we use to construct a local measure of treatment, at the level of a Chinese prefecture, following Bartik (1991). This allows us to estimate a difference-in-difference empirical specification based on variation across Chinese prefectures before and after 2001. We find that prefectures facing the average decline in trade policy uncertainty experience an 18 percent increase in their internal in-migration rate – this result is driven by migrants who are "non-hukou", skilled, and in their prime working age. Finally, in those prefectures, working hours of "native" unskilled workers significantly increase – while the employment rates of neither native workers nor internal migrants change.